10. Comparing Two Population Means

10.4 Unpaired or Independent Sample t-Test

In comparing the variances of two populations we have one of two situations :

  1. Homoscedasticity : \sigma^2_1 = \sigma^2_2
  2. Heteroscedasticity : \sigma^2_1 \neq \sigma^2_2

These terms also apply when there are more than 2 populations. They either all have the same variance, or not. This affects how we do an independent sample t-test because we have two cases :

1. Variances of the two populations assumed unequal. \sigma^2_1 \neq \sigma^2_2.

Then the test statistic is :

    \[t_{\rm test} = \frac{(\bar{x}_1 - \bar{x}_2)}{\sqrt{\frac{s^2_1}{n_1} + \frac{s^2_1}{n_2}}}\]

This is the same formula as we used for the z-test. To find the critical statistic we will use, when solving problems by hand, degrees of freedom

(10.2)   \begin{equation*}  \nu = \min(n_{1}-1,n_{2}-1). \end{equation*}

This choice is a conservative approach (harder to reject H_{0}). SPSS uses a more accurate

(10.3)   \begin{equation*} \nu = \frac{\left( \frac{s^2_1}{n_1} + \frac{s_2^2}{n_2} \right)^2}{\left[ \frac{\left( \frac{s^2_1}{n_1} \right)}{n_1-1} + \frac{\left( \frac{s^2_2}{n_2} \right)}{n_{2}-1} \right]} \end{equation*}

You will not need to use Equation (10.3), only Equation (10.2). Equation (10.3) gives fractional degrees of freedom. The t test statistic for this case and the degrees of freedom in Equation (10.3) is know as the Satterwaite approximation. The t-distributions are strictly only applicable if \sigma_{1} = \sigma_{2}. The Satterwaite approximation is an adjustment to make the t-distributions fit this \sigma_{1} \neq \sigma_{2} case.

2. Variances of the two populations assumed equal. \sigma_{1} = \sigma_{2} = \sigma.

In this case the test statistic is:

    \[t_{\rm test} = \frac{(\bar{x}_1 - \bar{x}_2)}{\sqrt{\frac{(n_1-1)s^2_1 + (n_2-1)s^2_2}{n_1 + n_2 - 2}} \sqrt{\frac{1}{n_1} + \frac{1}{n_2}}}\]

This test statistic formula can be made more intuitive by defining

(10.4)   \begin{equation*} s_{p} = \sqrt{\frac{(n_1-1)s^2_1 + (n_2-1)s^2_2}{n_1 + n_2 - 2}} \end{equation*}

as the pooled estimate of the variance. s_{p} is the data estimate for the common population \sigma. s_{p}^{2} is the weighted mean of the sample variances s_{1}^{2} and s_{2}^{2}. Recall the generic weighted mean formula, Equation (3.2). The weights are \nu_{1} = n_{1}-1 and \nu_{2}=n_{1}-1; their sum is \nu_{1} + \nu_{2} = n_{1} - 1 + n_{2} -1 = n_{1} + n_{2} -2. In other words

    \[s_{p}^{2} = \frac{\nu_{1} s_{1}^{2} + \nu_{2} s_{2}^{2}}{\nu_{1} + \nu_{2}}\]

and we can write the test statistic as

(10.5)   \begin{equation*} t_{\rm test}= \frac{(\bar{x}_1 - \bar{x}_2)}{s_{p} \sqrt{\frac{1}{n_1} + \frac{1}{n_2}}}. \end{equation*}

See that s_{p} \sqrt{\frac{1}{n_1} + \frac{1}{n_2}} is clearly a standard error of the mean.

10.4.1 General form of the t test statistic

All t statistics have the form :

    \[t_{\rm test}= \frac{\mbox{Difference of means}}{\mbox{Standard error of the mean}} = \frac{\mbox{Signal}}{\mbox{Noise}}.\]

Remember that! Memorizing complicated formulae is useless, but you should remember the basic form of a t test statistic.

10.4.2 Two step procedure for the independent samples t test

We will use the F test to decide whether to use case 1 or 2. SPSS uses a test called “Levine’s test” instead of the F test we developed to test H_{0}: \sigma^2_1 \neq \sigma^2_2.  Levine’s test also produces an F test statistic. It is a different F than our F but you interpret it in the same way. If the p-value of the F is high (larger than \alpha) then assume \sigma_{1} = \sigma_{2}, if the p-value is low (smaller than \alpha) then assume \sigma_{1} \neq \sigma_{2}.
In real life, homoscedasticity is almost always assumed because the t-test is robust to violations of homoscedasticity until one sample set contains twice as many, or more, data points as the other.

Example 10.4: Case 1 example.

Given the following data summary :

s_{1}=38 \overline{x}_{1}=191 n_{1}=8
s_{2}=12 \overline{x}_{2}=199 n_{2}=10

(Note that (s_{1}=38) > (s_{2}=12). If that wasn’t true, we could reverse the definitions of populations 1 and 2 so that F_{\rm test} > 1.) Is \overline{x}_1 significantly different from \overline{x}_2? That is, is \mu_1 different from \mu_2? Test at \alpha=0.05.

Solution :

So the question is to decide between

    \[H_{0}: \mu_{1} = \mu_{2} \hspace{.5in} H_{1}: \mu_{1} \neq \mu_{2}\]

a two-tailed test. But before we can test the question, we have to decide which t test statistic to use: case 1 or 2. So we need to do two hypotheses tests in a row. The first one to decide which t_{\rm test} statistic to use, the second one to test the hypotheses of interest given above.

Test 1 : See if variances can be assumed equal or not.

1. Hypothesis.

    \[H_0: \sigma^2_1 = \sigma^2_2\hspace{.25in} H_1: \sigma^2_1 \neq \sigma^2_2\]

(Always use a two-tailed hypothesis when using the F test to decide between case 1 and 2 for the t test statistic.)

2. Critical statistic.

    \[F_{\rm crit} = F_{\alpha/2, \nu_1, \nu_2} = F_{0.05/2, 7, 9} = F_{0.025},7 ,9 = 4.20\]

(from the F Distribution Table)

(Here we used \alpha given for the t-test question. But that is not necessary. You can use \alpha = 0.05 in general; the consequence of a type I error here is small because the t-test is robust to violations of the assumption of homoscedasticity.)

3. Test statistic.

    \[F_{\rm test} = F_{7, 9} = \frac{s^2_1}{s^2_2} = \frac{38^2}{12^2} = 10.03\]

4. Decision.

10.03 > 4.20 (F_{\rm test} > F_{\rm crit} — drawing a picture would be a safe thing to do here as usual) so reject H_{0}.

5. Interpretation.

Assume the variances are unequal, \sigma_{1}^{2} \neq \sigma_{2}^{2}, and use the t test statistic of case 1.

Test 2 : The question of interest.

1. Hypothesis.

    \[H_0: \mu_1 = \mu_2\hspace{.25in}H_1: \mu_1 \neq \mu_2\]

2. Critical statistic.

From the t Distribution Table, with \nu =\min(n_{1}-1,n_{2}-1) = \min(8-1, 10-1) \min(7,9) = 7, and a two-tailed test with \alpha = 0.05 we find

    \[t_{\rm crit} = \pm 2.365\]

3. Test Statistic.

    \begin{eqnarray*} t & = & \frac{(\bar{x}_1 - \bar{x}_2)}{\sqrt{\frac{s^2_1}{n_1} + \frac{s^2_2}{n_2}}} \\ & = & \frac{(191 - 199)}{\sqrt{\frac{38^2}{8} + \frac{12^2}{10}}} = -0.57 \end{eqnarray*}

The p-value may be estimated from the t Distribution Table using the procedure given in Chapter 9: from the t Distribution Table, \nu = 7 line, find the values that bracket 0.57. There are none, the smallest value is 0.711 corresponding to \alpha = 0.50. So all we can say is p > 0.50.

4. Decision.

t_{\rm test} = -0.57 is not in the rejection region so do not reject H_{0}. The estimate for the p-value confirms this decision.

5. Interpretation.

There is not enough evidence, at \alpha = 0.05 with the independent sample t-test, to conclude that the means of the populations are different.

Example 10.5 (Case 2 example) :

The following data seem to show that private nurses earn more than government nurses :

Private Nurses Salary Government Nurses Salary
\bar{x}_1 = 26,800 \bar{x}_2 = 25,400
s_1 = 600 s_2 = 450
n_1 = 10 n_2 = 8

Testing at \alpha=0.01, do private nurses earn more than government nurses?

Solution :

First confirm, or change, the population definitions so that s_{1}^{2} > s_{2}^{2}. This is already true so we are good to go.

Test 1 : See if variances can be assumed equal or not. This is a test of H_{0}: \sigma_{1}^{2} = \sigma_{2}^{2} vs. H_{1}: \sigma_{1}^{2} \neq \sigma_{2}^{2}. After the test we find that we believe that \sigma_{1}^{2} = \sigma_{2}^{2} at \alpha = 0.05. So we will use the case 2, equal variances, t-test formula for test 2, the test of interest.

Test 2 : The question of interest.

1. Hypothesis.

    \[H_{0}: \mu_{1} \leq \mu_{2}\]

    \[H_{1}: \mu_{1} > \mu_{2}\]

(Note how H_{1} reflects the face value of the data, that private nurses appear to earn more than government nurses in the population — it is true in the samples.)

2. Critical statistic.

Use the t Distribution Table, one-tailed test, \alpha = 0.01 (column) and \nu = n_{1} + n_{2} -2 = 10+8-2=16 to find

    \[t_{\rm crit} = 2.583\]

3. Test statistic.

    \begin{eqnarray*} t_{\rm test} &=& \frac{(\bar{x}_1 - \bar{x}_2)}{\sqrt{\frac{(n_1-1)s^2_1 + (n_2-1)s^2_2}{n_1+n_2-2}} \sqrt{\frac{1}{n_1} + \frac{1}{n_2}}} \\ t_{\rm test} &=& \frac{(26,800 - 25,400)}{\sqrt{\frac{(10-1)600^2 + (8-1)450^2}{10+8-2}} \sqrt{\frac{1}{10} + \frac{1}{8}}} \\ t_{\rm test} &=& \frac{1400}{\sqrt{\frac{(9)(360000) + (7)(202500)}{16}}\sqrt{0.1+0.125}} \\ t_{\rm test} &=& \frac{1400}{\sqrt{\frac{3240000 + 1417500}{16}} \sqrt{0.225}} \\ t_{\rm test} &=& \frac{1400}{(\sqrt{291093.75})(\sqrt{0.225})} = 5.47 \end{eqnarray*}

To estimate the p-value, look at the \nu = 16 line in the t Distribution Table to see if there are a pair of numbers that bracket t_{\rm test}=5.47. They are all smaller than 5.47 so p is less than the \alpha associated with the largest number 2.921 whose \alpha is 0.005 (one-tailed, remember). So p < 0.005.

4. Decision.

Reject H_{0} since t_{\rm test} is in the rejection region and (p < 0.005) < (\alpha = 0.01).

    \[t_{test} > t_{crit} \hspace{.25in} (5.47 > 2.583)\]

5. Interpretation.

From a t-test at \alpha = 0.01, there is enough evidence to conclude that private nurses earn more than government nurses.